Name: Iran leadership change by...?
Start: 2026-03-09T02:58:15.361Z
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z

Question 1

What is the "Iran leadership change by...?" prediction market?

Accepted Answer

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Proba with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 24.5¢ (25% implied probability). The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 16.5¢ (17% implied probability). Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24.5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

Question 2

How much trading activity has "Iran leadership change by...?" generated on Proba?

Accepted Answer

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $3.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Proba community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

Question 3

How do I trade on "Iran leadership change by...?"?

Accepted Answer

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?", browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it is incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

Question 4

What are the current odds for "Iran leadership change by...?"?

Accepted Answer

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "June 30, 2027" at 24.5¢ (25% implied probability), meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 16.5¢ (17% implied probability). These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what is most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

Question 5

How will "Iran leadership change by...?" be resolved?

Accepted Answer

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner, including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Question 6

Can I follow "Iran leadership change by...?" without placing a trade?

Accepted Answer

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Iran leadership change by...?". The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Question 7

Why are Proba's odds for "Iran leadership change by...?" considered reliable?

Accepted Answer

Proba odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.1 million traded on "Iran leadership change by...?", these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants, often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Proba tend to become more informative as events approach resolution and more traders participate.

Question 8

How do I start trading on "Iran leadership change by...?"?

Accepted Answer

To place your first trade on "Iran leadership change by...?", sign up for a free Proba account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you are new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Proba page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

Question 9

What does a price of 24.5¢ for "June 30, 2027" mean?

Accepted Answer

On Proba, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 24.5¢ for "June 30, 2027" in the "Iran leadership change by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 25% chance that "June 30, 2027" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 24.5¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 75.5¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

Question 10

When does the "Iran leadership change by...?" market close?

Accepted Answer

The "Iran leadership change by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jul 1, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

Question 11

What are traders saying about "Iran leadership change by...?"?

Accepted Answer

The "Iran leadership change by...?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Question 12

What is Proba?

Accepted Answer

Proba is a prediction market platform where you can stay informed and trade on real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, finance, tech, and culture, including markets like "Iran leadership change by...?". Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by real money, giving you a transparent market view of what participants expect to happen.

Iran leadership change by...?

Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

Iran leadership change by...?

Rules

Frequently Asked Questions